Probabilistic photovoltaic generation and load demand uncertainties modelling for active distribution networks hosting capacity calculations

With the increasing integration of photovoltaic (PV) systems in active distribution networks (ADNs), accurate modelling of PV power generation and the network demand has become essential, especially for system operators (SO). However, existing studies have focused on deterministic representations of hourly profiles for PV generation and load consumption, which cannot thoroughly evaluate the existing uncertainties of PV power output and load demands. In this study, uncertain parameters load demand and PV power output profile will be modelled with forecasted values, and their profile will be obtained over probability density functions (PDFs). Firstly, a vast quantity of realistic load and PV generation profiles are produced over a day with 15-minute resolution, with a scenario generation method using the Monte Carlo methodology. Afterward, the generated scenarios are reduced to a set of scenarios to represent the span of all generated scenarios. A fully local reactive power regulation strategy is used in this study to evaluate the hosting capacity of the ADN. This proposed method is tested on modified 33-bus and 69-bus distribution test systems by using practical solar generation and load data. The proposed methodology results in the hosting capacity improvement by 20% besides the existing Q-Voltage and PF-Power local voltage control methods, where it has the flexibility to be implemented to any distribution feeder.