Energy Sharing Under Uncertainty : A Long-Term Stochastic Multi-Criteria Assessment of Allocation Mechanisms in Renewable Energy Communities

Abstract

Renewable Energy Communities (RECs) face a defining governance decision at creation: selecting the Key of Repartition (KoR) — the rule that determines how shared renewable generation is allocated among members at each settlement period. This thesis evaluates five sharing mechanisms applied to Guzmán Renovable, a 14-member, 30.3 kWp collective self-consumption community in Burgos, Spain. Perfor-mance is assessed across six criteria covering efficiency (self-consumption ratio), individ-ual sufficiency (self-sufficiency ratio), economic value (bill savings), distributional equity (Gini coefficient), flexibility demand (Energy to Shift), and environmental impact (CO₂ avoided). Rather than relying on a single observed year, outcomes are characterized across several scenarios (years) generated by seasonal block bootstrap resampling of a 21-year historical solar record (2004–2025) and a six-year consumption record (2020–2025), cap-turing the inter-annual variability a community faces. No KoR dominates across all criteria. Dynamic KoRs achieve a higher self-consumption ratio compared to static KoRs, they also avoid more emissions. The com-munities implemented KoR has the worst equity and ranks last on every criterion. Adding a shared 30 kWh / 15 kW battery raises self-consumption ratio for dynamic KoRs while leaving equity rankings unchanged. Critically, the stochastic framing reveals that equity outcomes are far more sensitive to inter-annual variability than efficiency.