Quantifying the impact of day-ahead renewable forecasts on DER hosting capacity estimation

Abstract

This research paper presents a novel optimization approach to estimate short-term hosting capacity of distributed energy resources (DER) within a local distribution network. It emphasizes how DER day-ahead forecasts at various nodes can significantly impact both total and nodal hosting capacities. By analysing these forecasts, the distribution system operator (DSO) can proactively adjust the hosting capacity estimation to ensure network short-term operational security under different scenarios. Our study case with Finnish urban network model confirms that nodes at the beginning of the feeder have higher nodal hosting capacity. Crucially, even 40% variations in DER forecasts for these high-capacity nodes can substantially affect the entire network's hosting capacity. This highlights the paramount importance of accurate DER forecasts, particularly for these critical points within the DSO network.