Carbon Pricing and CCUS : Evidence from China

Abstract

While the process of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) plays a pivotal role in mitigating climate change impacts, rising economic uncertainty, geopolitical conflict, and oil price volatility tend to retard CCUS deployment; which carbon emissions trading mechanisms can mitigate. The literature shows that such schemes are still immature in developing economies such as China, where carbon pricing seems to be a key strategy to lower CO2 power generation emissions. In this study, we thus investigate the Chinese carbon market’s volatility, concentrating on time-dependent jumps in emissions pricing. As jump-induced volatility represents an important risk, precise information thereon is important for increased carbon trading efficiency. The GARCH-jump process finds that such jumps do occur in the Chinese emissions market and that key uncertainty indicators including the aforementioned economic policy uncertainty, crude oil volatility index, and geopolitical risk can explain the resulting volatility, with important implications for policymakers and socially responsible investors.