Compound deployment risk analysis in direct air capture, green ammonia and long-duration energy storage

Abstract

Direct air capture (DAC), green ammonia and long-duration energy storage (LDES) projects have attracted large public commitments, yet project cancellations are mounting. This paper argues that deployment fails when several barriers bind at once, chiefly absent demand, uncompetitive cost, policy uncertainty and unbankable finance, and that a technology's prospects are set by its weakest barrier rather than its average strength. That logic is formalised in a Compound Deployment Risk Index, stress-tested for robustness, and paired with a levelised-cost model for each technology, using sourced data through mid-2026. The results show why each technology stalls. Capturing CO2 from air costs 480–1000 USD per tonne, more than any compliance scheme currently pays. Green ammonia becomes competitive as a shipping fuel only at a carbon penalty of 370 to 680 USD per tonne, above the 100 to 380 USD proposed by the International Maritime Organization. Furthermore, in Great Britain's storage auction, new battery chemistries were undercut by lithium-ion and pumped hydro at every procured duration. The policy conclusion is that creating demand is necessary but not sufficient: it must be paired with cost reduction and de-risked finance for a self-sustaining industry to emerge.