Financial stress and crude oil implied volatility: New evidence from continuous wavelet transformation framework

Abstract

This study explores the theoretical possibility of co-movement and causality between crude oil implied volatility (OVX) and financial stress in a wavelet framework. The paper contributes to the existing literature in at least three possible ways: (a) First, the study considers not only composite financial stress indicators but also uses the categorical stress components such as Credit, Equity Valuation, Funding, Safe Assets and Volatility. (b) Second, the study employs a wavelet-based approach in tracking the co-movement and causality between oil and financial stress in a continuous time-frequency space. Lastly, (c) while previous studies mainly use oil price changes to assess the relationship with financial stress, the present study evaluates the role of forward-looking (30-days ahead) oil price uncertainty (proxied by OVX). The findings indicate the existence of co-movement between oil volatility and financial stress, mainly around the phases of economic turbulence. The patterns and strength of such co-movements are time-variant. The direction of the relationship is mostly positive, and the lead-lag relationship reveals that OVX tends to drive the relationship. It is further observed that the causalities between the variables are mostly bi-directional. However, relatively stronger causalities are transmitted from OVX towards FSI. Furthermore, the association between OVX and stress indicators is assessed in two different states of the economy, i.e., state of distress and tranquillity. The findings suggest that the causal co-movement intensifies majorly during the state of distress. Overall, the outcome of this study could be useful to policymakers and investors to anticipate the impending changes in the relationship to mitigate its potential adverse impact.