Carbon emissions and population migration preferences: the impact of China’s carbon emissions and low-carbon policies on regional population migration

Abstract

Rising carbon emissions intensify global climate challenges, raising significant health and safety concerns widely recognized by the international community. However, research on how carbon emissions and related policies influence population migration remains limited. This study analyzes data on carbon emissions and population migration in Chinese cities from 2005 to 2019, highlighting spatial and temporal variations. It empirically examines how carbon emissions affect migration patterns across regions. Using a Generalized Difference-in-Differences approach, the study investigates the impact of China’s low-carbon policies on urban migration rates and their effects on neighboring cities. The findings reveal that cities with higher per capita carbon emissions experience lower migration rates. Similarly, elevated emissions in one city reduce migration rates in surrounding areas. Low-carbon policies significantly boost urban migration rates, with an estimated increase of 16.226‰ in migration rates seven years after implementation. However, these policies create a siphoning effect, reducing migration rates in neighboring cities. This study offers a spatial framework for understanding how reducing carbon emissions can enhance urban attractiveness. It provides valuable insights for policymakers crafting low-carbon development strategies.