Do uncertainties affect biofuel prices?

Abstract

We investigate the impact of geopolitical risk, U.S. economic policy uncertainty, financial stress, and market volatility on prices of U.S. and Brazilian ethanol and Malaysian palm oil. We use quantile autoregressive and quantile causality methods and provide evidence of ethanol and palm oil prices being asymmetrically influenced in the downside and upside by each of the uncertainty measures considered. Malaysian palm oil prices are more attuned to increases in uncertainty measures. Increases rather than decreases in uncertainty more strongly impact ethanol and palm oil prices. Uncertainty causes large negative price fluctuations in the biofuel commodities, while moderate uncertainty changes only moderately influence prices. Large uncertainty increases cause large or extreme positive changes in ethanol and palm oil prices. Implications of the results are discussed.