Nebiyu Girgibo

Results of Seaside 
Energy Solutions 
in Land Uplift and 
Climate Change 
in the Kvarken 
Archipelago
A Mixed-Method Investigation



ACTA  WASAENSIA 525



Copyright © Vaasan yliopisto and the copyright holders. 

ISBN  978-952-395-120-4 (print) 
978-952-395-121-1 (online)

ISSN 0355-2667 (Acta Wasaensia 525, print) 
2323-9123 (Acta Wasaensia 525, online) 

URN  http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-395-121-1 

Hansaprint Oy, Turenki, 2023. 



ACADEMIC DISSERTATION 

To be presented, with the permission of the Board of the School of Technology 
and Innovations of the University of Vaasa, for public examination on  

the 13th of December, 2023, at noon. 



Article-based doctoral dissertation, School of Technology and Innovations, Energy 
Technology  

Author Nebiyu Girgibo  https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0439-3772 

Supervisor(s) Emeritus, Research Manager Dr Erkki Hiltunen 
University of Vaasa, School of Technology and Innovations, 
Energy Technology. 

Senior Advisor Dr Pekka Peura 
University of Vaasa, School of Technology and Innovations, 
Energy Technology. 

Professor Dr Xiaoshu Lü 
University of Vaasa, School of Technology and Innovations, 
Energy Technology. 

Custos Emeritus, Research Manager Dr Erkki Hiltunen 
University of Vaasa, School of Technology and Innovations, 
Energy Technology. 

Reviewers Professor Andres Annuk 
Chair of Energy Application Engineering, Institute of Forestry and 
Engineering, Estonian University of Life Sciences.

Dr. Jean-Nicolas Louis  
Research Team Leader, Design and Operation of Energy Systems 
VTT, Technical Research Center of Finland. 

Opponent Professor Margareta Björklund-Sänkiaho 
Åbo Akademi, Faculty of Science and Engineering. 

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5451-9746


V 

Tiivistelmä 

Tämä tutkimus käsittelee ensisijaisesti meren rannalla toteutettavia uusiutuvan 
energian sovellutuksia ja niiden yhteyksiä ilmastonmuutokseen ja maan nousemi-
seen. Mahdollisia sovellutuksia olivat vesistölämmönvaihdin ja sedimenttiener-
gian tuotanto. Ehdolla olivat myös aaltoenergia, asfalttienergia, resurssit, pohja-
veden hyödyntäminen, tuuliturbiinit, KNBNNO-materiaalit ja aurinkoenergia-
järjestelmät. Työhön saatiin tilastollisia analyysejä varten pitkän aikavälin säätie-
toja (1959–2019) Ilmatieteen laitokselta ja veden laatutietoja (1974–2018) ELY-
keskuksesta. Riskianalyysit tehtiin asiantuntijakyselyihin perustuen. Sedimentti-
lämpöenergian tuotantoa koskeva tieto saatiin kahdelta mittauspaikalta Vaasan 
Suvilahdesta. Mittausajankohdat olivat 8/2013–12/2016 sekä 9/2018. Tutkimus-
menetelmänä oli monimenetelmätutkimus, jossa tehtiin sekä kvalitatiivisia tutki-
muksia käsitteellisessä kehyksessä että kvantitatiivisia tutkimuksia kuten data-
analyysit ja riskianalyysit. Ilman lämpötila nousi huhtikuussa ja heinäkuussa, 
minkä odotettiin epäsuorasti lisäävän klorofylli-a:n määrää esimerkiksi heinä-
kuussa osoittaen kasviplanktonin kasvua ja runsastumista vesiympäristössä. 
Vesien lämpötilojen odotettiin laskevan helmikuussa ja nousevan maaliskuussa, 
kesäkuussa ja heinäkuussa. Ilmas-tonmuutoksen vaikutukset hyödyttävät sedi-
mentin lämpöenergian tuottoa ke-sällä. Se on kuitenkin paikkariippuvaista ja riip-
puu myös lämmönkeruuputkiston asennussyvyydestä. Riskianalyysi osoittaa, että 
peltobiomassa on ilmastonmuutokselle riskialttein. Vastaavasti vaikutus maaläm-
pöön on vähäisin. Peltobiomas-saenergialla on suurimmat ympäristövaikutukset 
ja aurinkoenergialla/keräimillä pienimmät. Kvalitatiivisen tutkimuksen tulokset 
tukivat kvantitatiivisia tuloksia. 

Tärkein johtopäätös on, että meren rannassa uusiutuva energia on pääsääntöisesti 
matalassa vedessä olevaa geoenergiaa. Useimmat sovellutukset hyödyntävät joi-
nakin vuodenaikoina ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutuksia. Ilman lämpötilan todennä-
köisellä nousulla saattaa olla suoria tai epäsuoria vaikutuksia Merenkurkun saa-
ristossa veden laatuun aiheuttaen veden lämpötilan ja klorofylli-a:n pitoisuuden 
kasvua joidenkin kuukausien aikana. Vaikka uusiutuvaan energiaan liittyvät riskit 
ovat pieniä, niitä on hyvä tutkia, jotta uusiutuvan energian käyttö säilyisi turvalli-
sena. Saadut tulokset auttavat otettaessa uusiutuvaa energiaa käyttöön ja hyödyn-
nettäessä sitä alueen kehityksessä. Tutkimus yhdistää veden laadun, ilmaston-
muutoksen, maan nousemisen ja rannikon energiaratkaisut ja käsittelee niiden 
muutoksia Vaasan alueen läheisyydessä. On havaittu myös, että ilmastonmuutok-
sen vaikutukset paikallisesti poikkeavat maailmanlaajuisista odotuksista. 

Avainsanoja: Geoenergia, sedimentin lämpöenergia, uusiutuvan energian riskit, 
ilmastonmuutos, veden laatu, maan nouseminen 



VI 

Abstract 

This research primarily considers seaside renewable energy solutions that result 
in climate change effects and their relation to land uplift. The possible solutions 
considered were water heat exchanger and sediment heat energy production; 
suggested were wave energy, asphalt energy resources, groundwater energy 
utilization, wind turbines, KNBNNO-material and solar systems. Long-term 
weather data (1959–2019) from FMI and water quality data (1974–2018) from 
ELY-Keskus were gathered and used for statistical analysis. Expert opinions were 
used for risk analysis. The sediment heat energy production data were from two 
sites (Ketunkatu and Liito-oravankatu) in Suvilahti, in the city of Vaasa, Finland 
(August 2013 – December 2016 and September 2018). A mixed-methods approach 
was used, with both qualitative studies, e.g., framework chart development, and 
quantitative studies, e.g., data analyses and risk analyses. The air temperature 
increased in April and July, which was expected to indirectly increase the 
chlorophyll-a level (e.g. in June), an indicator of phytoplankton growth and 
abundance in the water systems. Water temperatures were expected to decrease in 
February and increase in March, June and July. Sediment heat energy production 
uses climate change effects in summer, but is site-specific and dependent on 
installation depth. Risk analysis shows that climate change is the riskiest for field 
biomass energy and affects ground heat sources the least. Field biomass energy has 
the greatest environmental effects and solar energy/collector the lowest. In 
addition, mixed methods analysis shows support from qualitative studies for 
quantitative ones.  

A key conclusion is that seaside renewable energy is mainly shallow geothermal 
energy and most of these solutions use climate change effects in some seasons. The 
likely increase in air temperature on water quality in the Kvarken Archipelago may 
have direct and indirect effects, causing water temperature and chlorophyll-a 
concentration to increase in some months. Though the risks of renewable energy 
are low, it is important to analyse them to preserve safe, renewable energy use. 
These results assist in implementing and managing renewable energy in regional 
development. The study combines water quality, climate change, land uplift, and 
seaside energy solutions and presents their changes in the vicinity of the Vaasa 
region. This shows that climate change effects on the local area differs from world 
expectations. A main contribution of the research is drawing relationships between 
different disciplines and topics, thus creating a sophisticated view of natural 
phenomena and seaside renewable energy solutions.  

Keywords: Geo-energy, sediment heat energy, the risks of renewable energy, 
climate change effect, water quality, land uplift 



VII 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 

First, I would like to thank God for his love and support in my life, what you can 
give him is just acknowledgement. My opportunity to carry out this research was 
unexpected, and I was chosen and encouraged by Emeritus, Research Manager 
Erkki Hiltunen, who is my mentor and an example of success in life. Although I 
started my research as a trainee only for a short period, his support has led me to 
complete this study and its research. From the bottom of my heart, I warmly thank 
him for everything he has done for my accomplishments and life experience. I 
would also like to thank my other supervisors, Senior Advisor Pekka Peura and 
Professor Xiaoshu Lü, for their great support and motivation.  

As well, I am very thankful to the reviewer’s Professor Andres Annuk from the 
Estonian University of Life Sciences and Dr. Jean-Nicolas Louis from VTT, 
Technical Research Center of Finland. I would like also to thank the assigned 
opponent and custos to my public defence. Moreover, I would love to thank J. 
Scher-Zagier, Ph.D. (from Cambridge Proofreading and Editing LLC) for the great 
language editing done for this dissertation.  

When I started my studies in Finland at TAMK (the Tampere University of Applied 
Sciences), I met Dr Marjukka Dyer, whom I consider a mother in education and 
life in general. Later, I met Professor Jouni Taskinen (at Jyväskylä University at 
the time of my master’s study) and finally, here at the University of Vaasa, 
Emeritus, Research Manager Erkki Hiltunen and Professor Seppo Niemi, all of 
whom I consider my fathers in both education and life. Becoming their student 
substantially shaped my life and helped me carry out excellent doctoral research, 
and I am looking forward to what I will do in the future. At first, my research was 
related to the Merten Talo project, of which I became a part, including writing the 
report, which became the basis of the literature background of this research. 
Finally, the dissertation and the continuous work after the reports were written, as 
a researcher in the project and later as a worker, has led me to great experiences 
as a result of this research, for which I am grateful. 

I also would like to gratefully acknowledge the job opportunities provided by the 
University of Vaasa in the Merten Talo, Profi 4 (Academy of Finland funded 
project) and LEAP-RE projects, and the financial support received from the 
Finnish government (Pohjanmaan TE-Toimisto and Kela) during periods of 
unemployment. In addition, I am very grateful for my grant fundings during this 
doctoral research period, which were provided by Erkki Paasikiven Säätiö, the 
University of Vaasa Foundation, the Ella and George Ehrnrooth Foundation, and 



VIII 

the Finnish Cultural Foundation. These jobs, financial support and fundings made 
this research possible and facilitated my life during my studies. 

I also wish to thank my colleagues at Tritonia Library, the University of Vaasa, the 
School of Technology and Innovations, the VEBIC, the Department of Energy 
Technology, the Renewable Energy research group, and the LEAP-RE project for 
their patience, understanding and excellent support, both when we worked in the 
same department, University or project and when helping me in my research 
works. Here, I did not write the names of individual colleague’s name in detail 
because most of my colleagues helped me significantly in my doctoral research, my 
work and as co-author. As well, I want to thank everyone who had helped me in 
my life, works, this doctoral dissertation, its finalization, and trial defence and final 
defence preparations. It is my pleasure to be a fellow human in this nice world 
along with you, to see, talk and discuss with you in what ever situations it happens. 

In addition, I would like to express my appreciation to all my family and friends 
for their love and support, especially my sisters (Zinash Wolde and Tenawork 
Wolde) and their husbands; my brothers (also those who are in England and 
America), their wives and all their children; all my other family members, and my 
friends. My most heartfelt thanks go to my mom Lackech Bezu Zirgua and my 
father Wolde Girgibo Oke (in his lifetime now he is no longer with us), who made 
me study hard, praying for me and helping me to accept life’s challenges. My 
greatest gratitude goes to my sons Natnael, Abel and my wife Redieat 
Gebermicheal for their love while I am away working and at home, where they 
make life challenging, enjoyable and worth living. I also would like to thank all my 
friends, priests and the Ethiopian community here in the city of Vaasa and in 
Finland. Thank you all, family, friends and colleagues, for helping me carry out this 
research and to face life challenges. 

What a marvellous experience it is to be a PhD student! It simply transforms your 
life. Because of the challenging new experiences involved, your entire 
understanding changes: you learn how many challenges you can pass through and 
how much you can do more, which spurs you on to do future research.  

Many thanks to God and everyone else for your help in my work and life.  

 

Nebiyu Wolde Girgibo  

October, 2023 

Vaasa, Finland  



IX 

Contents 

TIIVISTELMÄ ............................................................................................ V 

ABSTRACT ............................................................................................. VI 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ............................................................................ VII 

1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................. 1 
1.1 Background ............................................................................. 4 

1.1.1 Climate change and land uplift .................................. 4 
1.1.2 Impacts of climate change on water resources and 

quality ...................................................................... 8 
1.1.3 The start of a renewable energy project in the 

Kvarken area ........................................................... 13 
1.1.4 The UNESCO World Heritage Site in the Vaasa region 

of Finland ............................................................... 14 
1.1.5 Climate change mitigations and renewable energy .. 19 
1.1.6 Climate change impacts on the gulf-stream ............. 23 
1.1.7 Climate change and how it was addressed .............. 25 

1.2 Challenges and problems ...................................................... 30 
1.2.1 Problem statements ................................................ 32 
1.2.2 Current State of-The-Art Approaches ....................... 34 

1.3 Objectives and methods ........................................................ 35 
1.3.1 Objectives ............................................................... 35 
1.3.2 Purpose of the research .......................................... 36 
1.3.3 Research questions ................................................. 37 
1.3.4 Hypotheses ............................................................. 38 
1.3.5 Motivations ............................................................. 42 
1.3.6 Conceptual framework ............................................ 42 
1.3.7 An overview of research design ............................... 50 
1.3.8 Ethical questions raised .......................................... 52 

1.4 Contributions ........................................................................ 52 
1.4.1 Seaside renewable energy resources literature review 

(Publication I) .......................................................... 53 
1.4.2 The Kvarken archipelago area climate change effect 

on water quality (Publication II) ............................... 53 
1.4.3 Risk analyses on renewable energy (Publication III) .. 54 
1.4.4 Sediment heat energy production (Publication IV) .... 54 
1.4.5 Mixed-method and land uplift contributions (All 

publications) ........................................................... 55 
1.5 Structure of the Dissertation .................................................. 56 

2 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................... 57 
2.1 Introduction .......................................................................... 57 
2.2 Research design .................................................................... 58 

2.2.1 Methodology ........................................................... 64 
2.2.2 Methods .................................................................. 72 
2.2.3 Conceptual design .................................................. 77 



X 

2.3 Data collections ..................................................................... 79 
2.3.1 Data types collected and used ................................. 79 
2.3.2 Procedure/instrumentations .................................... 79 
2.3.3 Population and samples .......................................... 80 
2.3.4 Ethical issues .......................................................... 81 

2.4 Data analysis ......................................................................... 81 
2.4.1 Selections of variables ............................................. 82 
2.4.2 Model equation used in main analyses .................... 83 

2.5 Validity and reliability ............................................................ 84 
2.5.1 Validity ................................................................... 85 
2.5.2 Reliability .............................................................. 111 
2.5.3 Practical usefulness, applicability and 

generalisability ..................................................... 116 
2.6 Limitations and assumptions ............................................... 120 
2.7 Significance ......................................................................... 120 

3 RESULTS ........................................................................................ 123 
3.1 Introduction ........................................................................ 123 

3.1.1 Summary of the articles and their relations ........... 123 
3.1.2 The study topics are related to and built on the 

following works .................................................... 126 
3.2 Seaside renewable energy resources literature review .......... 127 
3.3 The air temperature change effect on water quality in the 

Kvarken Archipelago area .................................................... 131 
3.4 Risks of climate change effects on renewable energy resources 

and their utilisation impacts on the environment ................. 135 
3.5 Statistical Investigation of Climate Change Effects on the 

Utilisation of the Sediment Heat Energy ............................... 140 
3.6 Quantitative and qualitative result comparisons and 

interpretation and land uplift relations ................................ 143 

4 DISCUSSIONS ................................................................................. 148 
4.1 Discussions of the topics and research gaps ........................ 148 
4.2 Answering the research questions and result discussions .... 151 
4.3 Hypotheses confirmations/falsifications .............................. 157 

5 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................... 161 
5.1 Conclusions of the research ................................................ 161 
5.2 Recommendations ............................................................... 164 
5.3 Implications of the context/practitioners and field study ..... 164 
5.4 Areas of further research ..................................................... 165 

REFERENCES ....................................................................................... 166 

APPENDICES ........................................................................................ 180 

PUBLICATIONS .................................................................................... 186 



XI 

Figures  

Figure 1.  Examples of the cycle between climate change effects and 
water resource reduction, and the consequences of the 
cycle. ............................................................................. 11 

Figure 2.  One form of combating climate change is by using its 
current effects as an advantage. ..................................... 13 

Figure 3. The area and location of the High Coast/Kvarken 
Archipelago UNESCO World Protected Site (white circles) 
(Hietikko-Hautala 2012 and High Coast/Kvarken 
Archipelago presentation, Kvarken Archipelago and 
Merten Talo 2016). ......................................................... 15 

Figure 4.  Estimated gross effect on GHG emissions in the EU (EEA 
report 2018). ................................................................. 21 

Figure 5. The research’s general steps are based on mitigating, 
combating and adapting climate change. ....................... 29 

Figure 6.  Different types of radiation, including radiation trapped by 
‘greenhouse gases’ effect were modified from Sukhatme’s 
(1984) solar radiation book with the support of Arrhenius’s 
(1896) explanation. ........................................................ 44 

Figure 7.  Core doctoral research illustration. ................................. 48 
Figure 8.  The mixed methods embedded design for the overall 

design of this research [based on Creswell and Clark 
(2011)]. .......................................................................... 51 

Figure 9. The first general research design chosen is a two-phase 
embedded design. Capital letters show priority [modified 
from Creswell and Plano Clark (2007)]. ........................... 60 

Figure 10. The preliminary embedded experimental model in the 
context of the research; the bold part is the choice of 
where the main qualitative analysis took place during the 
experiment. Uppercase letters show priority [modified 
from Creswell and Plano Clark (2007)]. ........................... 62 

Figure 11. The type of embedded correlational model planned. 
Uppercase letters show priority in the process [modified 
from Creswell and Plano Clark (2007)]. ........................... 63 

Figure 12. The methodology plan and choices made in each step of 
methodological development in the research process. .... 67 

Figure 13. The concept map was built based on an example presented 
by James and Slater (2014) book. Capital letters (or 
QUANTITATIVE) show priority in the analysis. ................. 70 

Figure 14. The conceptual design shows two-way relationships 
between each specific topic/purpose and the central 
background elements (indicated by small two-way arrows) 
and research process steps taken (indicated by the white 
arrow and directions). .................................................... 77 

Figure 15. The flow chart illustrating the whole methods used in 
statical analyses. ............................................................ 82 

Figure 16. The overall relationships between different publications, 
topics (in italics) and research questions (RQ). .............. 126 



XII 

Figure 17. The graph shows the sum of the average risk estimate level 
of the climate change risks to all renewable energy 
resources. .................................................................... 138 

Figure 18. The graph shows the sum of the average risk estimate level 
of the risks to the environment due to use and production 
of all renewable energy resources. ............................... 139 

Figure 19. Scatter plot matrix showing temperature for the different 
months of the year in 2013 versus distance for both sites 
at Suvilahti in the city of Vaasa. Ketunkatu (left) and Liito-
oravankatu (right). ....................................................... 142 

Figure 20. The conceptual and theoretical framework of land uplift: 
causes, measurement methods, patterns, consequences of 
uplift and how to calculate future uplift in the local area. 
For formulas, figures, and table numbers indicated in the 
framework chart, refer to Girgibo et al. (2022). ............ 146 

Figure 21. Sea-level rise and land uplift: forecasts of annual rates, 
based on central estimates. .......................................... 147 

 

  



XIII 

Tables  

Table 1. Impacts of climate change on water quality parameters 
(Shrestha et al. 2014). ...................................................... 9 

Table 2. The specific areas considered for each section of the 
framework chart development. ...................................... 76 

Table 3. The specific areas considered for theoretical data 
calculations for far-future forecasting and areas 
considered for empirical data validation analysis. .......... 76 

Table 4. Pearson’s correlation coefficient summary for water 
quality variables and weather data from Vaasa airport. The 
results presented here are statistically significant (the null 
hypothesis is rejected). [P = probability (P < 0.05)]. ........ 83 

Table 5. Summarising information from the four dissertation 
articles: title, publication context, authors and 
contribution. ................................................................ 123 

Table 6. The purposes and aims of the dissertation articles, relation 
to the thesis, novelty and findings. .............................. 124 

Table 7. The data set analysis results for linear trend fitting: 
intercept, slope, R2 (goodness-of-fit coefficient) and P > F 
(model probability) for air temperature. Model: ŷ = a1 + 
a2*year, where only the statistically significant (P < 0.05) 
results are presented here. .......................................... 132 

Table 8. The data sets analysis results for linear trend fitting: 
intercept, slope, R2 (goodness-of-fit) and P > F (model 
probability) for water temperature. Model: ŷ = a1 + a2*year, 
where only the statistically significant (P < 0.05) results are 
presented here. ........................................................... 134 

Table 9. The best and the worst average risk levels of renewable 
energy resources (compared and checked by the average 
risk estimates total sum for each energy resource). ...... 137 

Table 10. This table presents a summary of the interpretations of the 
results of the mixed-method investigation for comparison. 
The table shows specific relationships and comparisons 
between the different publications, results, topics and 
research questions (RQs). ............................................ 182 

 

  



XIV 

Abbreviations  

AA-CES 

AMOC 

Advanced adiabatic compressed air energy storage systems 

Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 

AO Arctic oscillation 

ATES Aquifer thermal energy storage system 

AR 

ARIMA 

AU 

Assessment Report (e.g. AR4, AR5 and AR6) 

Autoregression integrated moving average 

Africa Union  

BOD Biochemical oxygen demand 

BTES Borehole thermal energy source system 

CCS 

Chl-a 

Carbon capture and storage 

Chlorophyll-a concentration  

DTR 

DTS 

Diurnal temperature range 

Distributed temperature sensing method  

DO Dissolved oxygen 

DOC Dissolved organic carbon 

EEA European Environment Agency 

EER Energy efficiency ratio 

ELY-keskus Centre of Economic Development, Transport and the 
Environment (Elinkeino-, liikenne- ja ympäristökeskus) 

ENSO El Niño south oscillation 

Et al. And others 

EU 

EV 

Europe Union  

Energy Village  

FCEA Finnish Clean Energy Associations 

FAR First Assessment Report 

FGI Finnish Geospatial Institute 

FMI Finnish Meteorological Institute 



XV 

GCM Global climate models 

GEU Groundwater energy utilisation 

GHGs Greenhouse gasses 

GSHC Ground source heating and cooling 

GPS Global positioning system 

Gt 

GTK 

Gigatonnes 

Geological Survey of Finland  

GWP Global warming potential 

H Hypothesis 

HAWT Horizontal axis wind turbine 

HELCOM Helsinki Commission 

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

IRB Institution review board 

IST 

IUCN 

Ice storage tank 

International Union for Conservation of Nature  

JY/JYU 

KNBNNO 

 

LEAP - RE 

Jyväskylä Yliopisto/University of Jyväskylä 

([KNbO3]0.9[BaNi1/2Nb1/2O3-δ]0.1) material by the PLD (pulse laser 
deposition) 

Long-Term Joint Europa Union (EU) - Africa Union (AU) 
Research and Innovation Partnership on Renewable Energy 

LLGHGs Long-lived greenhouse gases 

LUKE Natural Resource Institute Finland 

NAM North annular mode 

NAO North Atlantic oscillation 

NCs Nordic countries 

NEP New energy policy project 

NGO’s Non-governmental organizations 

NH Northern Hemisphere 



XVI 

NLS National Land Survey of Finland 

MMR Monitoring Mechanism Regulation 

MOC 

MtCO2 

Mtoe  

Meridional overturning circulation 

Metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent  

Millions of tonnes of oil equivalent  

m.y. Millions of years 

PCMs Phase change materials 

PDO Pacific decadal oscillation 

PNA Pacific North American pattern 

ppb Parts per billion 

ppm Parts per million 

RCM Regional climate models 

RE Renewable energy 

RES Renewable energy sources 

RERs Renewable energy resources 

RF 

RQ 

SAS 

Radiative forcing 

Research question  

Statistical Analysis System  

SAR Second Assessment Report 

SCADA 

SEM 

Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition 

Structural equation modelling  

SLE Sea level rise estimate 

SPM 

SPSS 

Summary of policymakers 

Statistical Package for Social Sciences 

SREs Special report emission scenarios [IPCC (2000)] 

SSTs Sea surface temperatures 

STEs 

SYKE 

Sensible thermal energy storage systems 

Suomen Ympäristö keskus/Finnish Envrionmental Center  



XVII 

TAMK Tampere Ammatti korkeakouluun/Tampere University of 
Applied Sciences 

TAR Third Assessment Report 

TCB Total coliform bacteria 

TCS Thermo-chemical storage 

TDS Total dissolved solids 

TES Thermal energy systems 

TN Total nitrogen 

TP Total phosphorus 

TRT Thermal response test 

TSI Total solar irradiance 

UCG Underground coal gasification 

UHI Urban heat island 

UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization 

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 

UTES Underground thermal energy source system 

VAMK Vaasan Ammattikorkeakouluun/Vaasa University of Applied 
Sciences 

VAWT 

VIF 

Vertical axis wind turbine 

Variance inflation factor  

VNS 

VY/UVA 

Validity Network Schema 

Vaasa Yliopisto/University of Vaasa 

WFD Water Framework Directive 

WQ Water quality 

WWF World Wildlife Fund 

 
  



XVIII 

Publications  

 

This doctoral research contributed to the following publications:  

I. Girgibo, N. W. (2022). Seaside Renewable Energy Resources 
Literature Review. Climate, 10(10), 153.  
https://doi.org/10.3390/CLI10100153  

II. Girgibo, N., Lü, X., Hiltunen, E., Peura, P., & Dai, Z. (2023). The air 
temperature change effect on water quality in the Kvarken 
Archipelago area. Science of The Total Environment, 874, 162599. 
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2023.162599  

III. Girgibo, N.; Hiltunen, E.; Lü, X.; Mäkiranta, A. and Tuomi, V. Risks 
of climate change effects on renewable energy resources and their 
utilisation impacts on the environment. [Submitted/Under Review]. 
Energy Reports. 

IV. Girgibo, N., Mäkiranta, A., Lü, X., & Hiltunen, E. (2022). Statistical 
Investigation of Climate Change Effects on the Utilization of the 
Sediment Heat Energy. Energies, 15 (2), 435.  
https://doi.org/10.3390/EN15020435  

 
  

https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2023.162599
https://doi.org/10.3390/EN15020435


XIX 

Author’s contributions to the publications  

 

Publication I.  

Original idea, writing the original manuscript, literature data gathering, 
systematic literature analyses, reviewing, editing and funding acquisition 
by the thesis author.  

Publication II.  

Original idea, writing the original manuscript, data gathering, data 
analysis, reviewing, editing and funding acquisition by the thesis author. 

Publication III.  

Original idea, writing the original manuscript, data gathering, data 
analysis, reviewing, editing and funding acquisition by the thesis author. 

Publication IV.  

Original idea, writing the original manuscript, data gathering, data 
analysis, reviewing, editing and funding acquisition by the thesis author. 

 

 





 

1 INTRODUCTION   

In this article-based doctoral dissertation, the research studies seaside energy 
solutions, land uplift and climate change in Kvarken Archipelago, a protected 
UNESCO world heritage site in the city of Vaasa, Finland. The research was 
primarily a statistical analysis of long-term data regarding air temperature 
changes and their effects on both water quality and meteorology. In addition, the 
research deals with geoenergy resources, such as sediment heat production; future 
land uplift effects related to general climate change; the Gulf Stream situation; and 
the structure of planned and implemented energy technologies. This first chapter 
introduces the research, including the background, the problem, the problem 
statement, the current state-of-the-art approach, objectives and methods 
(including the objectives, purpose of the research, research questions, hypotheses, 
motivation, conceptual frameworks, an overview of the methodology and the 
ethical questions raised), as well as presenting contributions and the structure of 
the theses.  

The narrative of the doctoral research is as follows: land uplift in the area began 
about 10,000–11,000 years ago. Due to anthropogenic factors, climate change 
effects began to occur about 100 years ago. Consequently, water began to rise due 
to glacial melting, with ice sheet melting and water temperature both increasing. 
This sea-level rise has affected the land uplift effect in some areas. In the present 
day, our research group is trying to find and implement renewable energy 
resources (sediment heat energy production and water heat exchange) to combat 
climate change, since renewable energy is arriving in the Archipelago area. In 
addition, this research investigates the effect of climate change on geoenergy 
(sediment heat energy). In other words, the research centres around the 
relationship between land uplift, climate change, water quality, sea level rise and 
renewable energy. The research also deals with risks to renewable energies caused 
by climate change and related to land uplift, as well as risks to the environment 
from renewable energy use and production. During this period, with the Russian 
war on Ukraine having caused an energy crisis in Finland and the EU, in the wake 
of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to focus on the use of local renewable 
energy to overcome the shortage in energy production and the energy market. 

The main contribution of this research is the idea of the use of climate change 
effects to our advantage, concretely to generate heat energy in the pursuit of 
combating and mitigating climate change. Since water heat exchangers were found 
to be more affected by climate change, summer heat production when using this 
equipment is expected to be higher. The Kvarken Archipelago protected UNESCO 



2     Acta Wasaensia 

World Heritage area was found to be affected by air temperature changes in terms 
of its weather data and water quality parameters. Risk analysis explored new 
terrain in climate change research by analysing the risks of climate change on 
renewable energy resources. This research found that sediment heat energy 
production can use climate change effects to its advantage, especially in summer. 
In winter, sediment heat energy will not benefit from climate change effects such 
as air temperature changes and increased solar irradiance.  

The project site, Merten Talo (Swedish name ‘Havets Hus’) is in the Raippaluoto 
silta area, between the cities of Vaasa and Mustasaari. The Kvarken Archipelago 
protected UNESCO World Heritage area was chosen because it shows natural 
climate change fluctuations without human pollution. Hence, the area is and was 
protected from human pollution; as such, nearly identical environmental effects 
are expected to be found in this area in terms of water quality. The importance of 
the area also lies in the fact that these studies are expected to continue in the 
future. Therefore, the area is useful for determining the exact effects of climate 
change in protected areas in the past, present and future. This creates a much 
broader path for this research and the future development of possible research 
platforms in renewable energy, hydrology, limnology, meteorology and climate 
change studies and their forecast at the station. 

Climate change affects the use of energy sources, such as wind turbine utilisation, 
and even produces risks. However, climate change effects can benefit us by 
increasing the temperature of the energy source, such as by using water heat 
exchangers and sediment energy under the water body. On the other hand, if the 
Gulf Stream is speed increasing, this will cause lower temperatures, which may 
significantly affect the use of water heat exchangers. It will be impossible in the 
future to use wind turbines because of wind storms, in some areas of the world 
(Girgibo 2021). However, since climate change causes increased average global 
water temperatures, it is possible to install water heat exchangers, which can be 
useful throughout the year. 

In winter, there is now less or no ice above some areas of the sea, rendering it 
possible to use water heat exchangers and wave energy as a heat source. 
Furthermore, these changes can be useful worldwide, at least in cold areas. If the 
ice in Greenland melts rapidly at the current time, it will reinforce the Gulf Stream 
near Finland and likely cause cold temperatures in the region. In this case, the 
energy needs of the islands can be solved by delivering oil. Since land uplift is 
producing more land between islands, people can walk to deliver oil, if they can no 
longer use boats. This can be adapted as an energy management policy if it is not 



Acta Wasaensia     3 

possible to use renewable energy. In addition to the higher carbon emission effect, 
islands currently have much higher costs for oil delivery (Final report 2011). 

Climate change is a question of environmental changes and sustainability in 
energy. Due to climate change, the sustainability of energy usage is affected, with 
current human solutions being inadequate. Therefore, there must be a change in 
how societies receive energy. ‘Energy and climate (2014)’ stated that in its roadmap 
for 2050, Finland’s long-term objective is to be a carbon-neutral society. The 
researcher believe humans must focus on renewable energy and its production to 
preserve the world and our way of life. One of the most common sources of 
pollution in Earth’s climate is the release of CO2 and other gases from energy 
production with fossil fuels. This study is a small solution for that specific area. 
However, this is how one can begin to contribute to ongoing solutions in the 
worldwide energy sector.  

The contribution of this project is making energy usage renewable, at least in a 
particular area such as the Kvarken Archipelago, which can help solve the global 
causes of climate change. In addition, the research is expected to deliver new 
knowledge, improve existing knowledge and solutions, create understanding and 
motivate other people and nations to act the same. Climate change is not an issue 
that is limited one nation or people: it is a worldwide issue. Therefore, we have the 
responsibility to act together toward the common goal of combating climate 
change. In the past, when people faced a common problem, they found ways of 
collaborating and solving it together. Although this is what was expected, it 
nonetheless took humanity a long time to collaborate internationally at the global 
level.  

This research was one way of acting towards the adaptation of solutions as well as 
addressing the study of climate change effects on water quality in the UNESCO 
heritage area at the archipelago in the city of Vaasa, Finland. At least here at the 
University of Vaasa and Vaasa Energy Institute, the issue of energy sustainability 
has not been thoroughly investigated in previous studies. This research made 
much more effort to make solutions sustainable by taking advantage of climate 
change. By ‘taking advantage of climate change’, meaning using possible outcomes 
such as water temperature increases, increased wind, increased water flow in 
rivers, and increased solar irradiance as renewable energy sources. The most 
important questions for the future are: are these advantages or energy sources 
sustainable for the future or merely a temporary solution? What can be done if the 
increases are extreme enough to cause damage to energy technology systems, such 
as wind turbine damage? 



4     Acta Wasaensia 

Some research gaps included taking advantage of the relations between climate 
change, water resources and energy use, the application of seaside energy and 
predicting future renewable energy capacity increase due to climate change effects. 
Specifically, this includes adapting to climate change effects on energy usage and 
combating climate change, as well as finding the climate change correlations 
between meteorology and water quality in long-term data. This is related to the 
idea that climate change has effects on water (UNESCO 2009). Similar, climate 
change causes aquatic environmental changes due to increased pollution 
(UNESCO 2009). Therefore, people must continue to move forward through these 
changes. In addition, this research addressed forecasting land uplift, described the 
effects on the Gulf Stream due to climate change in the areas considered, 
investigated and proposed new energy solutions and carried out risk analysis for 
energy resources.  

The motivations behind this research were addressing global climate change by 
combating it with adaptations and working towards a better future; providing 
solutions to seaside energy requirements; and knowing the effect of climate change 
on water resources, meteorology, and the future and current state of land uplift.  

1.1 Background  

This subsection delivers a brief introduction to the background knowledge for this 
research. Additional literature review reports were written during this research 
work and published separately. Due to the limited number of pages in an article-
based doctoral dissertation, the literature review chapter was all not included in 
detail. Rather, this section represents a brief overview of the background. 

1.1.1 Climate change and land uplift  

The relationships between climate change and land uplift are presented here. 

1.1.1.1 Land uplift  

This section delivers a short background on land rise or uplift in Finland. Interest 
in the study of land rise began 300 years ago (Kääriäinen 1953). At first, many 
believed that land shift was due to a decline in the amount of water in the sea and 
oceans. It was believed that this occurred because of the evaporation of water, the 
consumption of water by plants, and oozing of water through the floors of the 
oceans into the interior of the earth, following the explanations of the physicist 



Acta Wasaensia     5 

Anders Celsius. In 1621, some even taught that it was a sign of the end times 
(Kääriäinen 1953). However, the water decrease theory and the supposed coastline 
changes were determined to be false by 1747. Others thought about that water in 
the north was drawn to the equator by centrifugal force due to the rotation of the 
earth, such that more land shore appeared in the north. However, the true reason 
for the phenomenon became clear with time. The Finnish land surveyor Ephraim 
Otto Runeberg was the originator of the theory that land uplifts were due to the 
movement of the Earth’s crust. It is said at least fifty scientists were working on 
the question of land uplift before the beginning of the twentieth century. Then, 
through accurate measurements, it was found that the water level varies across 
different regions, being higher in the northern Baltic region and lower in the 
southern regions (Kääriäinen 1953).   

The literature on land uplift includes both older and newer studies, including some 
recent publications, such as Nordman et al. (2020). The current studies on land 
uplift are essential. Based on the older studies, data on land uplift collected in 
Finland has two categories: recent measurements and prehistoric data (Okko 
1967). The prehistoric measurements are based on late glacial (Late Weichselian) 
and postglacial shoreline displacements determined by geological and 
archaeological methods, of which area a few. On other hand, the recent 
measurements are based on oceanographic, hydrographic and geodetic methods. 
However, two of the most common forms of determining land uplift are levelling 
and the use of tide gauges (Kääriainen 1953). It is also possible to determine 
previous sea level rises from historic pollen sedimentation studies by carbon 
dating. Moreover, according to Okko (1967), the relation between sea level rise and 
land uplift in the late Quaternary times was little studied in those days; even now 
it is difficult to gather literature in these areas. There are recent publications on 
the relationship between land uplift and sea-level rise in the city of Vaasa, such as 
Nordman et al. (2020). 

Listed below are some possible causes of land uplift. The causes of land uplift 
found by Kääriäinen (1953) and others are the following [adapted from Girgibo 
(2021)]: 1. Continents attract water; the larger the continent, the more water it 
attracts. This phenomenon depends on various factors, such as the aridity of the 
continent and the degree to which water is present, since the more water in the 
continent, the more raindrops it attracts. 2. The mass of the land and its attraction 
causes the small sea in its vicinity to sink, meaning that the land seems to rise. 3. 
The attraction of ice masses in the polar region causes water to move towards the 
pole; thus, as the glaciers melt, water gradually recedes. 4. At times, the shrinking 
of the earth’s crust causes vertical movement. 5. Ice masses from the Ice Age cooled 
the Earth’s crust, which began to warm after the ice began to melt. 6. Changes in 



6     Acta Wasaensia 

volume in connection with the crystallisation process beneath the earth’s crust are 
also a cause of land uplift. 7. The movement of the earth’s crust due to periodic 
variation is another fact, since the folding and levelling out of mountain ranges 
causes weathering formation. 8. The weight of the ice on the earth’s crust; this is 
thought to be flexible, so that when the ice melts gradually it causes a rise to the 
equilibrium position. 9. Finally, there is a possible connection between 
earthquakes and land uplift.  

Part of the Finnish land uplift was caused by earthquakes. The region of southern 
Lapland-Kuusamo and the end of Lake Vänern (i.e. both ends of the relatively long 
land uplift regions) are areas where earthquakes have caused some uplift in 
Finland (Girgibo 2021 and Löfman 1999). However, most of the land uplift was 
likely caused by melting of the ice that suppressed the Earth’s crust during the ice 
age in northern Europe, around 11,300 calendar years ago (Heinsalu 2001). This 
is a type of land uplift caused that is present in parts of the Vaasa area. The melting 
causes a gradual rise to the equilibrium position (cause 8 in the previous list). 
According to Okko (1967, table three), the land rise of the Vaasa and Finland area 
is around 4.3–6.1 mm/yr and 3–8.8 mm/yr respectively. Based on other studies, 
the land uplift in Finland is stronger in coastal areas. Merten Talo’s uplift ranges 
from 8 to 9 mm/yr, according to statements and pictures presented in (Ekman 
1996) and (Girgibo 2021).  

Climate change is connected to land uplift by the sea level effect, as can be seen in 
the theoretical model of Okko (1967). This model demonstrates that there is a 
relation between land uplift and sea level rise, whereby the calculation of land 
uplift must consider sea level rise in affected areas. Since sea level rise is caused by 
global temperature increases, there is a clear relation between climate change and 
land uplift. In addition, there are negative correlations between land uplift and sea 
level rise in the data gathered. On other hand, there is a clear positive correlation 
between temperature increases and sea level rise. The current relationship 
between sea level rise and land uplift was touched upon in the Kvarken area in 
Poutanen & Steffen (2014).  

Bill et al. (2018) found that land uplift in Alaska has been occurring for millions of 
years. The area that they analysed had volcanic conditions, but it is worth 
considering that the land uplift has been present in some parts of the world for 
millions of years and that the Vaasa region land uplift has been continuing for the 
past 10,000 years. With this in mind, land uplift will also continue in the future 
and affect islands and shorelines. The next section further investigates and 
describes the relationship between climate change (sea level rise) and land uplift.  



Acta Wasaensia     7 

1.1.1.2 Effects connected to climate change and land uplift and future 
expectations  

Land uplift is affected by climate change, primarily due to sea level rise conditions. 
Land uplift mainly consists in the rise of land on sea shores; hence, if sea level rise 
occurs at same time, the two phenomena can affect one another. According to the 
theoretical model of Okko (1967), there are three alternatives: 1) the sea level rise 
might be higher, causing a possibility of flooding or a decrease in the land uplift 
level (decrease in land size). 2) The effects might compensate one another so there 
is no net change. Finally, 3) the land uplift might exceed the sea level rise, causing 
the sea size to shrink. The finding of Norman et al. (2020) show that future land 
uplift in the Vaasa region is expected to continue to exceed sea level rise.  

The changes in temperature due to global warming cause sea level rise by melting 
the ice in Antarctica, North Pole and South Pole glaciers and in Greenland. Based 
on recent publications, most of the predictions of the temperature increase are 
higher, meaning there is more anticipated sea level rise. The higher the 
temperature levels, the greater the sea level rise. As such, a higher expected future 
temperature should lead us to expect more sea level rise. This naturally leads to 
the question of how much sea level rise is expected in the Vaasa region.  

Land uplift is a well-established phenomenon; indeed, in some places such as 
southern Alaska, it has been established to have been occurring for millions of 
years (Bill et al. 2018). Therefore, the continuity of land uplift might not be in 
question. Further, if climate change is not successfully combated, sea level rise is 
also expected to continue. Even if immediate actions are taken to stop CO2 
emissions, which is the ideal case, sea level rise will continue for a long time due 
to the carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases already present in the 
atmosphere causing a rise in temperature globally. It is thus important to know 
whether sea level rise or land uplift will win in the Vaasa region, or whether the 
two will compensate one another.  

Sea level rise is a phenomenon driven by the temperature increase in the 
environment. When the temperature increases the stored ice in the world melts; 
further, the volume of bodies of water expands due to an increase in water 
temperature. Sea level rise is facilitated and driven by the world temperature 
increase (global warming), which is caused by climate change. Knowing that 
climate change will increase global warming, one can expect greater sea level rise 
in the future. In Dasgupta and Meisner’s (2009) study, it is estimated that the 
future sea level rise might be 7 m higher if all the Greenland ice melts and 70 m 
higher if all the Antarctic ice sheet melts. In such a case, the land uplift effect will 
be completely outweighed by sea level rise.  



8     Acta Wasaensia 

This connection between climate change (sea level rise) and land uplift was part of 
the idea studied in this research. Land uplift can further affect the implementation 
of seaside renewable energy, due to the difficulty of installing the necessary 
infrastructure on the seaside. Another aspect of the connection to climate change 
is that land uplift can be affected by increased sea levels. The focus of the research  
was the triangular relationships among climate change, land uplift and seaside 
renewable energy solutions. Indeed, knowing the connections between climate 
change effects, land uplift and the anticipated future trends in these phenomena is 
a vital part of the main idea.  The next section deals with the impacts of climate 
change on water resources and quality.  

1.1.2 Impacts of climate change on water resources and quality  

A brief description of the relationships between climate change and water 
resources are presented here.  

1.1.2.1 Impacts and factors affecting water quality in water bodies due 
to climate change 

This section briefly explains the factors affecting water quality (WQ) due to climate 
change, specifically those affecting water bodies. The water quality parameters are 
listed on the next table, along with factors due to climate change that affect water 
quality and water bodies. Table 1 is useful in seeing which types of climate change 
factors will affect water quality. Based on the climate change factors, it is possible 
to predict the effect on the water quality parameters and vice versa. The IPCC 
(2007) suggests that the two main drivers of climate change are higher water 
temperature and variation in run-off. As seen in the following table (Table 1), 
temperature increases are one of the main factors affecting water quality in almost 
all water quality (WQ) parameter relations. Therefore, the table is useful in 
understanding the possible sources of climate change effects, which is necessary 
for researches of such as the present one.  
  



Acta Wasaensia     9 

Table 1. Impacts of climate change on water quality parameters (Shrestha 
et al. 2014).  

Water quality (WQ) parameters Climate Change 

Factors affecting WQ 

 

Water body 

Physico-
chemical  

Basic parameters  pH Drought, temperature 
increase, rain fall  

Rivers, lakes  

DO Drought, temperature 
increase, rain fall  

Rivers, lakes 

Temperature  Drought, temperature 
increase, rain fall  

Rivers 

DOC  Temperature and rain fall 
increase 

Streams and 
lakes  

Nutrients   Temperature and rain fall 
increase, droughts, heavy 
rainfall  

Rivers, lakes, 
streams, 
ground water  

Micro 
pollutants  

Inorganic  Metals  Temperature and rain fall 
increase, droughts, heavy 
rainfall 

Rivers, high 
alpine lakes, 
streams  

Organic  Pesticides Temperature and rain fall 
increase, drying and 
rewetting cycles  

Surface water 
and 
groundwater  

Pharmaceutical
s  

Temperature increase, rain 
fall 

Surface water, 
groundwater 

Biological  Pathogens   Temperature and rain fall 
increase 

Surface water  

Cyanobacteria   Temperature and rain fall 
increase 

Lakes  

Cyano-toxins   Temperature increase Lakes  

Green algae, 
diatoms, fish 

 Temperature increase  Freshwater  

others   Temperature increase Soils  



10     Acta Wasaensia 

1.1.2.2 The capacity fluctuation of water bodies due to climate change 
and its relation to energy  

This section deals with water capacity fluctuations that affect possible energy 
sources because of climate change. The capacity of stream water is highly affected 
by climate change and the change in stream water varies from place to place. 
According to Shrestha et al. (2014), the Nile River is vulnerable to drought. As 
such, the effect of climate change leads to a reduction in hydropower production 
and increases conflicts between nations, which causes a decrease in agricultural 
use. Consequently, the reduction in hydropower is related to climate change and 
affects the use of water for energy. As mentioned, climate change is causing stream 
water reduction in some areas, causing a decline in hydropower plants due to the 
lack of sufficient water capacity to run the plant. This particularly affects those 
countries that primarily rely on hydropower, such as Ethiopia. Conflicts have 
arisen in recent years between river-sharing nations such as Ethiopia, Egypt and 
Sudan, which share the Nile River. Ethiopia is currently building a dam for 
electricity production, which the other nations do not want since it will reduce river 
flow capacity in their lands.  

The reduction in the use of renewable energy (hydropower) sources in a country 
might cause a change to alternative energy sources, such as coal and fossil fuels. 
Therefore, the effects of climate change on water resources leads to an energy 
shortage, leading in turn to the use of non-renewable sources as a replacement. 
This further worsens climate change by increasing CO2 emissions into the 
atmosphere, creating a vicious cycle. Figure 1 illustrates the relation, with water 
reduction leading to reduced energy production and further climate change effects 
on the cycle. The change in energy production due to water resource reduction is 
one type of relationship between energy, water resources and climate change. 
Another relation arises from the need for a plant or energy production unit to have 
fresh water for systems cooling, such as thermal power and nuclear power stations. 
That causes a reduction in freshwater, which in turn will cause the power stations 
to decline in their continuous production capacity.  



Acta Wasaensia     11 

 

Figure 1.  Examples of the cycle between climate change effects and water 
resource reduction, and the consequences of the cycle.   

In short, then, water shortages limit hydropower energy usage and other possible 
energy solutions are developed by increases in water capacity. In the Kvarken 
Archipelago area of Finland, streams are increasing in capacity, according to 
Girgibo (2021). Huttunen et al. (2015) stated that water run-off will increase by 3–
11% relative to 2001–2010 in all parts of Finland. Due to the increase in 
precipitation, based on the model, this might represent up to 25% of the run-off 
increases in other models, especially in the middle and southern parts of Finland. 
From the same study, run-off decreases in dry seasons by 2–13% due to the 
decrease or slight increases in precipitation in those seasons, which is due to an 
increase in evapotranspiration. Thus, the stream water increase is due to ice 
melting, water temperature increasing (causing an increase the volume the water 
due to thermal expansion) and increased rainfall in the surrounding areas. This 
leads to floods, erosion and other effects on the ecosystems. Girgibo (2021) 
described the expected environmental changes in the Kvarken, Archipelago area. 



12     Acta Wasaensia 

The streams in the protected UNESCO World Heritage area in the Archipelago are 
small, so there is no possibility of using them as a hydropower source. On other 
hand, the reason for sea level rise is an increase in incoming water to the sea. Even 
if the streams are too low in capacity for hydropower production, the increasing 
seawater can then be used to install water heat exchangers for heating purposes. 
Hence, the water in the sea is cooler in the summer and used to cool households, 
whereas in the winter, it can be used as a heating source. Furthermore, the other 
advantage of increased water capacity and sea level rise is the use of wave energy. 
Wave energy is ideal in island areas with seawater waves present in open areas 
almost throughout the year, or at least in summer. Wave energy will increase in 
the future because of the ice cover decline, leading to the suggestion that wave 
energy will be an ideal energy source for the coming years. In brief, wave energy 
provides the opportunity to use the relations between climate change effects and 
water resources for energy production. In other areas of the city of Vaasa, sediment 
heat energy production can benefit from temperature increases due to climate 
change. Sediment heat energy production is also an ideal solution that uses climate 
change effects to its advantage in summer.  

1.1.2.3 Adaptation of climate change by using water resources as a 
medium in renewable energy systems   

Our children and the future of our planet are at risk (Girgibo 2021). Global climate 
change forecasts are not positive. Knowing how to adapt to climate change makes 
it easier to combat it. In addition, adaptation is one of the action plans of the Paris 
Agreement on climate change (2015) signed by 196 countries. Carbon dioxide 
accumulation is a cause of climate change and water changes are one result of this 
(UNESCO 2009). Reducing carbon emissions is one form of combating climate 
change. Climate adaptation literature suggests that future actions must combine 
mitigation of and adaptation to climate change.  

The use of renewable energy is the primary means of reducing carbon emissions 
from energy production technologies. Since greenhouse gases cause global 
warming, we can adapt or use the effect of global warming on water bodies as an 
advantage for energy sources or solutions. One of the effects of climate change is 
the greenhouse effect, the process where thermal radiation is absorbed and re-
emitted by the lower atmosphere [(Shrestha et al. 2014); (Hannah 2011)]. Based 
on Shrestha et al. (2014) and an IPCC statement (2007), it is very likely that an 
anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentration since the middle of the 
twentieth century has caused the global average temperature to increase. If these 
temperature increases will be present over a longer period, they might be used as 
energy source enhancements. 



Acta Wasaensia     13 

As a result, the adaptations planned for installation are water heat exchanger and 
borehole systems. Sediment heat energy also benefits from climate change, and 
this energy source thus represents an excellent solution to climate change 
adaptation. It is also possible to use groundwater and thermal energy source 
systems (GEU and UTES) in Vaasa and nearby regions. In addition, it is possible 
to use sediment heat production systems. GEU (groundwater energy utilisation) is 
a system that uses groundwater as a heat energy resource by pumping it to the 
surface and transferring the heat for use. It can be used for both heating and 
cooling systems (Arola 2015). One of the suggestions of this research is the use of 
GEU in the city of Vaasa. However, it requires experimental visibility investigation 
before it can be adapted. On the other hand, UTES (underground thermal energy 
storage) includes aquifer thermal energy source systems (ATES), borehole thermal 
energy source systems (BTES), sediment heat energy production, solar thermal 
panels, asphalt energy, and land and pond energy. Therefore, these renewable 
energies not only help us to adapt to or take advantage of climate change but also 
help replace non-renewable systems to reduce CO2 emissions. The relations of 
these energy sources to water and climate change make them of interest for this 
research. Figure 2 shows the possible strategy of using taking advantage of the 
effects of climate change to help combat it.   

 

Figure 2.  One form of combating climate change is by using its current effects 
as an advantage. 

1.1.3 The start of a renewable energy project in the Kvarken area  

There have been previous renewable-energy-initiated projects before the Merten 
Talo project. For example, the project ‘Drop in Sea’ dealt with an integrated hybrid 
renewable energy solution for island operations (Final report 2011). The ‘Drop in 
Sea’ project’s final materials are used in this research as a starting point and as 



14     Acta Wasaensia 

background material for renewable energy installations and for study in the 
Kvarken Archipelago area. The ‘Drop in Sea’ project was completed before the start 
of the research that forms the basis of this work. However, it helped in 
understanding the need for renewable energy solutions in areas considered, and 
as a source for those areas and for the specific renewable energy requirements for 
this research work. The project aimed to develop self-sufficient integrated energy 
solutions based on renewable energy resources in the local islands.  

The overall objective of the ‘Drop in Sea’ project was to develop a service concept 
and product portfolio for the self-sufficient production of energy based on 
renewable energy sources in the independent small-scale target (island operation). 
Additional higher-level objectives included the development of a small-scale 
decentralised power generation value chain, covering a range of energy sources, 
and the use of automated production, distribution, and energy-efficient 
management and economy. The location of this project was the Northern Kvarken 
islands, located near the Kvarken Archipelago UNESCO World Heritage sites, as 
well as the area of the Merten Talo project, the water quality sampling points and 
the two weather stations, all of which are central topics for this research work. The 
‘Drop in Sea’ project was in the island destination of Metsähallitus, Vaasa. There 
are empty coastguard and pilot stations, which are currently threatened with 
closure and were mainly intended for tourist use (Final report 2011). Appendix 1 
presents the project sites, the water sampling points and the weather data 
collection station sites. 

1.1.4 The UNESCO World Heritage Site in the Vaasa region of Finland  

The particularity of the Kvarken Archipelago is that it has existed since time 
immemorial (Hietikko-Hautala 2012). As such, the study of this area is 
intrinsically special. This area serves as a sort of natural museum, since it 
experienced land uplift growth during the ice age. In addition, the Gulf of Bothnia, 
the narrow sea between Sweden and Finland, has also been an important transport 
route (Hietikko-Hautala 2012). Further, Hietikko-Hautala states in her book that 
the Kvarken Archipelago World Heritage site, whose official name is the High 
Coast/Kvarken Archipelago, belongs to both Finland and Sweden. This site was 
accepted to be a part of the UNESCO World Heritage protected areas on 12 July 
2006, meaning that its recognition took 20 years. A group of local activists initially 
proposed the Kvarken archipelago as a Natural Heritage Site (Hietikko-Hautala 
2012). Figure 3 shows the High Coast/Kvarken Archipelago UNESCO World 
Protected Site area.  



Acta Wasaensia     15 

‘Kvarken is the narrowest part of the Gulf of Bothnia and forms a shallow threshold 
between the Bothnian Sea and the Gulf of Bothnia’ (Hietikko-Hautala 2012). In 
Finnish, Kvarken is called Merenkurkku, meaning ‘the throat or neck of the sea’. 
The southernmost part of Kvarken is about 30 kilometres north of the High Coast 
in Sweden. The distance between the outermost islands of the two archipelagos is 
only 70 kilometres. Northern Kvarken is the narrowest part of the Gulf of Bothnia 
(Breilin et al. 2004). ‘The Kvarken Archipelago World Heritage Site lies in the 
eastern part of Kvarken, which is part of the Bothnian Sea, which in turn is part of 
the Baltic Sea – the world’s largest brackish-water sea. Kvarken Archipelago, which 
is in the county of Ostrobothnia, stretches from the Mickelsörarna islands in the 
north to the island of Halsön in the south. From the city of Vaasa, the distance is 
approximately the same to the northern and southern extremities.’ (Kvarken 
Archipelago and Merten Talo 2016). 

 

Figure 3. The area and location of the High Coast/Kvarken Archipelago 
UNESCO World Protected Site (white circles) (Hietikko-Hautala 
2012 and High Coast/Kvarken Archipelago presentation, Kvarken 
Archipelago and Merten Talo 2016). 



16     Acta Wasaensia 

Historical recognition process timelines 

According to Hietikko-Hautala (2012), the timeline for the recognition of this 
World Heritage site as follows (lists of dates and explanations are taken directly 
from her book):  

- 1986 – ‘Finland ratifies the Convention Concerning the Protection of the 
World Culture and Natural Heritage’.  

- 1989 – ‘The World Heritage work group begins to investigate potential 
World Heritage Sites in Finland’.  

- 1996 – ‘The Nordic Council of Minsters’ ‘Verdensarv i Norden’ report is 
published’.  

- 1997–2000 – ‘The first application is drafted according to the biological 
criteria’.  

- 2000 – ‘Expert Geologist Paul Dingwall from the IUCN (International 
Union for Conservation of Nature) visits Kvarken’.  

- December 2000 – ‘The Swedish High Cost (Höga Kusten) is granted World 
Heritage status’.  

- 2001–2002 – ‘The second application is drafted according to the geological 
criteria’.  

- April 2002 – ‘The Västerbotten Country Administrative Board (on the 
Swedish side of Kvarken) withdraws for preparations’.  

- 2002-2005 – ‘The third application is completed. The Finnish side of 
Kvarken is proposed to become an extension to the High Coast based on 
geological criteria’.  

- 2005 – ‘Evaluator Jim Thorsell from the IUCN visits Kvarken’.  

- 2005-2006 – ‘The application is considered by the UNESCO World 
Heritage Committee’.   

- 12 July 2006 – ‘The Kvarken Archipelago is approved into the UNESCO 
World Heritage List in Vilna, Lithuania’.  

- 8 September 2007 – ‘The inauguration ceremony for the Kvarken World 
Heritage Site is held, headed by President Martti Ahtisaari’.  



Acta Wasaensia     17 

What is World Heritage?  

‘World Heritage is a globally accepted international agreement for cooperation in 
searching for, examining, identifying and designating unique culture or natural 
sites whose preservation is considered exceptional value to the whole of humanity’ 
(Hietikko-Hautala 2012). This is important both for humanity and for the 
protection of nature. The World Heritage Sites belong to all humans on Earth 
regardless of where they are located, according to the World Heritage philosophy 
(Hietikko-Hautala 2012). 

According to Hietikko-Hautala (2012), the history of the establishment of the idea 
of World Heritage was as follows: After the Second World War, an international 
movement was born. Two simultaneous movements, one for the preservation of 
cultural sites and the other for the protection of the natural environment, were 
combined in an international agreement that came into existence in the year of 
1972. In addition, in 1965, a proposal was made by the United States to combine 
international nature protection with the conservation of cultural heritage sites. 
Today this combination communicates an important message: that all humans can 
choose the manner in which they interact with and live in their environment 
(Hietikko-Hautala 2012). 

The Kvarken archipelago was accepted for inclusion on the World Heritage List on 
geological grounds (Hietikko-Hautala 2012). This is important because geological 
formation is an ongoing process in Finland as well. Hietikko-Hautala state that the 
Kvarken archipelago also fulfilled the requirements that Geological Natural 
Heritage Sites should ‘be outstanding examples representing the major stages of 
the earth’s history, including the record of life, significant ongoing geological 
process in the development of landforms, or significant geomorphological or 
physiographic features’ (Hietikko-Hautala 2012). This also provides excellent 
conditions for research work, which gives this area additional value, as Hietikko-
Hautala states in her book. This means the study of the effects of climate change 
on water systems in this area, as in the current research, has the opportunity to see 
the natural environment without additional sources pollution, which in other 
areas’ water systems can give incorrect values in understanding climate change 
effects in water quality analysis. In addditon, the area has unique features.  

Two sites, the High Coast in Sweden and the Kvarken Archipelago in Finland, form 
a joint World Heritage Site (Hietikko-Hautala 2012). They are opposite in their 
topography (high elevation in the High Coast and low elevation in the Kvarken 
archipelago), although they are only 70 km apart (Hietikko-Hautala 2012). They 
both give a complete picture of the land uplift phenomena caused by the last ice 
age and its geological and biological effects, according to Hietikko-Hautala (2012).  



18     Acta Wasaensia 

The Ice Age and Land Uplift (based on Hietikko-Hautala 2012) 

The story of the uplift of the Kvarken land begins when the Gulf of Bothnia and the 
whole of Fennoscandia was covered by the last continental ice sheets (Hietikko-
Hautala 2012). According to the same text, when the ice started to melt, the Brock 
ice sheet gave rise to icebergs and eventually formed a wide bay flowing from 
Sweden, from which large icebergs drifted to the south. The birth of the Kvarken 
Archipelago was due to the flowing and melting of the retreating continental ice 
sheet and the movement of enormous masses (Hietikko-Hautala 2012). In 
addition, the Kvarken Archipelago is established on smoothly worn bedrock with 
special geological features, namely well-formed De Geer moraines. This geological 
feature is found abundantly in extensive fields in the Kvarken archipelago 
(Hietikko-Hautala 2012). The intention of the World Heritage designation is 
specifically to preserve these traces of the ice age for future generations, according 
to Hietikko-Hautala’s (2012) book.   

According to Hietikko-Hautala (2012), the land area of the Kvarken archipelago 
increases by a square kilometre every year. For instance, she states that 35 hectares 
of new land are exposed each year on the islands of Replot and Björkö. The annual 
uplift in the Kvarken archipelago and in the city of Vaasa in general is about 8–9 
mm based on various references. Hietikko-Hautala (2012) states that this uplift is 
slower than in some areas in the world, such as on the coast of Canada and in 
Hudson Bay and James Bay, but that the phenomenon is better observed in the 
Kvarken archipelago than elsewhere. In her book, she explains that this is because 
the uplift is ‘affected by the increase in the rate of land uplift together with the 
shallowness and low topography of the moraine archipelago’. This not only helps 
preserve the traces of the ice age, but also assists in seeing the actual area of the 
uplift phenomena. This is because new landscape formations are constantly being 
raised and become more visible, based on Hietikko-Hautala (2012).  

The Kvarken archipelago is very shallow and rocky. Hietikko-Hautala (2012) 
stated that ‘the deepest water is located on the southern and northern flanks of the 
submarine ledge in the kvarken stairs’. The deepest point is approximately 25 
metres on the eastern side of Holmön in Sweden. The current uplift in Kvarken 
was caused by the end of the ice age, which had depressed the land, causing it to 
rebound. It was stated in Hietikko-Hautala’s (2012) book as follows. ‘Land uplift 
began with glacial melting when the earth’s crust was freed from the burden of the 
continental ice sheet, up to 3 kilometres thick. The mass had pressed the crust 
down for approximately a kilometre and as the pressure was released it began to 
rise slowly. Uplift already began below the melting continental ice sheet and, 
initially, was noticeably faster than at present’. The same book states that until 



Acta Wasaensia     19 

2012, uplift was 800 metres and that 100–150 metres more land uplift remained 
and would continue slowly, without breaking, for at least another 10,000 years, 
unless a new area of glaciation placed additional weight on the ground. 

1.1.5 Climate change mitigations and renewable energy  

It is well-known that renewable energy usage is used to mitigate climate change 
effects or to reduce fossil fuel pollution. The main source of pollution and 
greenhouse gases (GHG) is energy production from fossil fuels. In addition, other 
significant contributors for GHG are energy use for power, industrial processes, 
mobility, the building sector including the construction sectors. Numerous books 
and articles suggest that renewable energy can be one way to mitigate climate 
change. One such reference is Hannah (2011) who suggests that using renewable 
energy is the correct strategy for the present and future. Implementing renewable 
energy at the local level, as in the Merten Talo project, provides a means of using 
this resource. In addition, this will help to mitigate climate change, at least in the 
future, when more local areas start to use renewable energy resources. 
Furthermore, it will facilitate the process of renewable energy usage in regional 
development.  

By 2020, renewable energy sources (RES) are planned to represent 20% of energy 
consumption and 10% of transportation in the EU (EEA report 2018). In addition, 
it was stated that the new plan for 2030 is for RES to be 32% of energy 
consumption and 14% of transportation by the same year. Finland is planning to 
ensure 38% of energy consumption comes from renewable energy resources. 
Finland’s plans have been progressing well. This plan and some elements that have 
been established show that the EU is working hard to reduce climate change 
pollution and limit further climate change effects. This is a very important step for 
the world, one that can make the EU an example of human progress towards 
solving our only planet’s primary problem, climate change.  

However, to meet these targets, further commitments are required, especially 
because some EU nations’ final energy consumption has increased (EEA report 
2018). In addition, it was stated in the report that ‘Final energy consumption 
increase in EU member states are slowing down the pace of growth of renewable 
energy sources share across the EU’. On the other hand, renewable energy has 
some limitations that impede its use as a large-scale energy resource such as the 
cost of renewable energy solutions, its being limited to local areas due to the need 
for an energy source, lack of systematic infrastructure connecting renewable 
energy production to electrical grid and seasonal fluctuations that can limit the 



20     Acta Wasaensia 

production of the required amount of energy, such as in solar and wind. To solve 
these problems, the use of hybrid renewable energy resources is recommended.   

Hybrid renewable energy solutions have their advantages. Based on an article by 
Nakomcis-Smaragdkis and Dragutioovic (2016), an experiment performed in 
Siberia found that hybrid renewable energy can be cost-efficient and energy-
efficient over time. This is one reason to build and utilise hybrid solutions, 
principally those coming from renewable sources and mitigate climate change. In 
their analysis, the authors study the use of geothermal heat pump heating/cooling, 
solar photovoltaic panels and small wind turbines to supply power. They also state 
that ‘hybrid solutions/systems represent excellent solutions for remote area power 
applications, where grid expansion is costly’. This means that hybrid solutions are 
better for remote areas and islands. This can be one reason to use and build hybrid 
renewable solutions, in addition to the contribution of such solutions to mitigating 
climate change. 

According to the EEA report (2018), because of EU reporting requirements [the 
Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (MMR)], most climate mitigation policies and 
measures were reported by the Member States in 2017. MMR aimed for a desired 
reduction in GHG emissions from fossil fuel-based energy consumption (29%), 
transport (21%) and energy supply (15%). This was often achieved by increasing 
RES shares. In the EU, this has been a very important practice for mitigating 
climate change by setting goals and creating regulations. About 70% of newly 
installed power worldwide in 2017 was of renewable origin (EEA report 2018). It 
is encouraging to see this increase in renewable energy resource utilisation, which 
promises progress in mitigating climate change.  

The EU is the global leader in renewable energy usage per capita, but outside of 
the EU, there are countries that are rapidly increasing their renewable energy 
activity (EEA report 2018). It is important that the EU increase its activity to 
accelerate its transition so as to continue to be a leader in renewable energy use 
per capita in the future. China and India are currently very active users of 
renewable energy, which is encouraging for developing nations. However, they 
both also still use and install fossil fuel industries, which make EU to be the leader 
in renewable energy development. Among the challenges that remain for EU 
Member States are to reach EU climate and energy targets for 2030 and to become 
a sustainable, and low-carbon economy by 2050, thus satisfying the Paris 
agreement (EEA report 2018). 

One example of how renewable energy can help resolve climate change is the 
following: ‘The increased consumption of renewable energy in 2016 compared 
with 2005 levels allowed the EU in 2016 to. 1. Reduce its total GHG emissions by 



Acta Wasaensia     21 

460 MtCO2, equivalent to 9.4 % of total EU GHG emissions. 2. Improve energy 
security by cutting demand for fossil fuels by 143 Mtoe, or roughly 12 % of total EU 
fossil fuel consumption. 3. Improve energy efficiency by reducing the EU's primary 
energy consumption by 35 Mtoe, equivalent to a 2 % reduction in primary energy 
consumption across the EU’ (EEA report 2018). This is strong evidence of the 
effectiveness of the idea of solving climate change through renewable energy 
installation. To meet the Paris agreement, the EU must reduce its GHG emission 
by 80% to 90% by 2050 compared with the 1999 levels; in addition, it must 
decarbonise almost all energy-generating sectors. In pursuit of this goal, both 
renewable energy and energy efficiency are a key pillar of decarbonisation in the 
EU’s transition to a low-carbon economy and society (EEA report 2018). 

The use of renewable energy in the EU has been increasing both as a share of 
energy consumption and in absolute magnitude (EEA report 2018). Thus, it is 
replacing the fossil fuel market to a certain degree, which effectively reduces CO2 
emissions. ‘According to EEA calculations, in 2016, the largest relative reductions 
in the consumption of fossil fuels were made by Sweden (32%), Denmark (26%) 
and Finland (17%), in proportion to their gross domestic fossil fuel use’ (EEA 
report 2018). It is promising that Finland has one of the largest relative reductions, 
but compared to Sweden and Denmark, there is much to be done regarding the use 
of renewable energy. The same report said that the highest absolute fossil fuel 
avoided was recorded in Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, where the most 
renewable energy is consumed. Figure 4 demonstrates the EU’s experience of how 
the primary sources of GHG emission can be reduced by implementing renewable 
energy resources.  

 

Figure 4.  Estimated gross effect on GHG emissions in the EU (EEA report 
2018). 



22     Acta Wasaensia 

The idea of using renewable energy to reduce climate change effects is 
demonstrated for the EU in the previous figure. The research thus concludes that 
renewable energy is an effective means of mitigating climate change at a significant 
level. The EU has been progressing in the development of renewable sources, 
which is a good example for the rest of the world. The share of renewable energy 
was 17% in 2016 and 17.4% in 2017, compared to 9% in 2005 (EEA report 2018). 
The same report also states that in most nations in the EU, including Finland, 
renewable energy is primarily used in heating and cooling, followed by electricity 
and transport in that order. Since most nations have some months of winter with 
lower temperatures and more snowfall, this can explain why heating is takes the 
largest share. Some years ago in Finland, the summer was also quite hot; it is 
certain that during that period, the energy used for cooling in the country 
increased.  

The 2020 renewable energy development target had already been exceeded in 2017 
for Finland, as well as for Sweden and a few other EU nations (EEA report 2018). 
The share of renewable energy in 2016 was highest in Sweden (53.8 %), then in 
Finland (38.7%), Latvia (37.2%), whereas Luxembourg (5.4%), Malta (6.0%) and 
the Netherlands (6.0%) had the lowest shares in EU. There is more to be done here 
in Finland to reach the Swedish level or above it. It is certain that this progress will 
minimise the causes of climate change, which is mainly due to GHG emissions. It 
is essential for nations that their people and community believe in the use of 
renewable energy. People may not have realised the capacity of renewable energy 
and its potential to safeguard our planet from problems such as pollution and 
climate change.  

It is important to emphasise here that climate change can be solved or at least 
minimised by the massive implementation and use of renewable energy at a global 
level. It is also very important that renewable energy implementations be used 
when developing undeveloped nations. Some nations have greater resources due 
to climate change that can be used in renewable energy production. For example, 
in most African nations, solar power has been increasing over time. It is important 
for us to take advantage of this; merely criticising climate change does not solve 
anything. The greenhouse gas emissions decline illustrated in the above picture 
(Figure 4) can be achieved across the world. This means asking the right questions, 
believing, and implementing measures that protect our world by changing our 
previous behaviours.  

For instance, in our implementation, one can take advantage of climate change 
when using water heat exchanger and sediment heat energy production 
equipment. This is because water temperatures are expected to increase in the 



Acta Wasaensia     23 

future due to the air temperature increase associated with global warming. The 
higher the water temperature, the more heat energy can be extracted and stored 
by this equipment. Less fossil fuel used as a heat source fewer GHG emissions, and 
lower GHG emissions means fewer climate change effects, at least in the future. 
Hence, greenhouse effects are the main cause of climate change effects. Another 
example is that the lower the amount of ice present at sea, the greater the increase 
in wave energy. Similarly, the stronger the wind due to climate change in specific 
areas, the more wind energy can be used, and the greater the increase in solar 
irradiance, the more solar panels can be used for solar energy.  

1.1.6 Climate change impacts on the gulf-stream  

Based on the Pawlak & Leppänen’s (2007) description, climate change in the Baltic 
Sea is related to global climate change, with projections in this area being based on 
global climate changes and local/regional climate change models with the 
combination of emissions scenarios due to greenhouse gases and aerosols. The 
global effects of climate might be different from the local effects. Therefore, it is 
important to consider both global and regional models in creating the future 
climate change forecast. In addition, the atmosphere has a greater influence on the 
sea ice pattern. The Bothania Sea, consisting of large ice sheet sectors, was 
governed primarily by atmospheric rather than marine processes, as highlighted 
by Clason et al. (2016). This has been further influenced by the higher temperature 
change in the Baltic Sea over the last few decades. Concretely, from 1861 until 
2000, the warming of the Baltic Sea was about 0.08 OC per decade, but global 
warming for the entire world was about 0.05 OC per decade (Pawlak & Leppänen 
2007). This shows that the change in warming in the Baltic Sea is somewhat higher 
than global warming.  

The main idea here was to address whether the gulf-stream pattern changes were 
due to the melting of global ice sheets, as well as what the temperature of the 
surrounding area, including the nearby land and the Baltic Sea, will be in the 
future. Global warming already has caused higher temperatures and a longer frost-
free season in the Baltic Sea (Pawlak & Leppänen 2007). The land and air 
temperature has increased all over the world, including in Finland. The future 
temperature forecast shows that a temperature increase is also expected in this 
area. The largest change noticed was a decline in the ice cover season, which 
decreased by 14–44 days in the Baltic Sea in the past century due to the early 
break-up of ice. As such, how low ice cover seasons influence the nearby land 
temperature should be investigated, since it is likely that this has been contributing 
to the temperature increase on land. The length of the ice season and the date of 



24     Acta Wasaensia 

ice break-up shows a correlation with the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) 
(Pawlak & Leppänen 2007). This is important, since it shows that world climate 
changes influence local changes. In addition, the Atlantic meridional overturning 
circulation (AMOC) has a major impact on climate and its evolution during the 
industrial era is poorly understood (Caesar et al. 2018).  

A similar pattern of winters with more precipitation than summers was observed 
in the Baltic Sea basin (Pawlak & Leppänen 2007), just as with Finnish 
landmasses. This has an influence of the temperature of the Baltic Sea. The 
southern area of river flow to the Baltic Sea has decreased, so that drier conditions 
are present in the southern area in summer and a decrease in salinity has been 
observed in the Baltic Sea to some extent, according to the same text. In addition, 
the ice thickness and melting time has decreased relative the past century. This is 
influencing the pattern of flow from the river to the Baltic Sea. It is very difficult to 
find a text stating the effect of the gulf-stream pattern. This pattern is mainly 
influenced by the melting of the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. If these ice 
sheets melt in large part or completely, cold water will flow into the northern part 
of the Baltic Sea, which might cause lower temperatures on land. We might 
imagine it would cause more warming, depending on the water temperature and 
how the Baltic Sea influences the nearby land, such as the western part of Finland 
and the eastern part of Sweden.  

Further, when snowfall declines or ice cover disappears, the degree of snow 
reflectance/albedo declines, causing warmer water temperatures due to the 
presence of a heat sink. This might influence higher temperatures on nearby land. 
If one imagines future climate change effects, which mean less snow or ice cover 
and more intensive radiative forcing, there is also a chance that the melting of the 
ice sheets might lead to the second alternative, that the Baltic Sea Gulf Stream 
might cause higher temperatures on nearby land. The first alternative was stated 
in the previous above paragraph; the Gulf Stream might cause coldness on nearby 
land because cold water flowing from ice sheets melts in other parts of the world. 
The third alternative might be that there will no changes that exerts a substantial 
influence on the current effect of the Baltic Sea Gulf Stream in nearby countries. A 
more focused study must be conducted to identify which of these three possibilities 
will occur. This is a promising area of study for the near future. There will also be 
changes in water quality and other important physical and biological patterns, 
such as the water flow volume and pattern (hydrology changes and temperature 
changes) if changes occur in the Gulf Stream. Ecosystems in the Baltic Sea could 
change dramatically if the Gulf Stream change occurs.  



Acta Wasaensia     25 

According to Pawlak & Leppänen (2007), in recent years snow cover decline has 
been observed in southern Fennoscandia countries, whereas, in the northern part 
of these nations, the ice cover has become thicker. The authors also mention that 
in Finland, the ice cover became thicker in the northern and eastern parts (snow 
melt slowed), whereas the south and western sections saw a decline in ice cover 
thickness (snow melt intensified) toward the end of the period from 1946–2001, 
based on the same article. If these kinds of natural balances in nature and weather 
conditions progress, it is possible that no severe due to the Gulf Stream change in 
the Baltic Sea will be observed. This implies that the third option in the previous 
paragraph might apply in the future. On the other hand, if we consider the 
statement of Pawlak & Leppänen (2007), there is an indication that in the western 
Gulf of Finland summer (May – July) water temperature in the upper 30 m 
increased in the second half of the 20th century. If this seawater temperature 
continues to increase the second option might occur and the Gulf Stream might 
produce higher temperatures on nearby land.  

Westerlund & Tuomi (2016) carried out an intensive study of Baltic Sea 
temperature and salinity profiles over two summers, but there is not much 
information about Gulf Stream changes. Greenwood et al. (2017), studied the 
Bothnian ice stream in the past, but their research also said nothing about the Gulf 
Stream changes. It is somewhat difficult to find exact statements or studies about 
the Gulf Stream pattern or how it may change in the future, which renders it 
difficult to know its consequences. Further study on this topic is recommended. 
On the other hand, Caesar et al. (2018) stated that, based on model simulations of 
warming in the Gulf Stream, the region is expected to warm in the future due to 
the northward shift of the Gulf Stream. These warming effects on nearby lands are 
the most pronounced during the winter and spring (Caesar et al. 2018). Thus, 
according to the same article, the second alternative, in which the future Gulf 
Stream causes warming in nearby regions is the most accurate forecast of the 
future Gulf Stream effect.  

1.1.7 Climate change and how it was addressed  

This section answers the question of the nature and definition of climate change 
[For the answer to this question, please consider seeing the definition of climate 
change from IPCC (2007) reports and Girgibo (2021)]. Climate systems studies is 
the necessary basis for understanding the causes and effects of climate change. In 
the past, the cycle of heating or cooling proceeded naturally. However, 
anthropogenic (human) effects have been proven to be the cause of current climate 
change (IPCC 2007, 2013 and 2014).  



26     Acta Wasaensia 

As stated in Hannah (2011) and Girgibo (2021), understanding climate change 
requires understanding the related issues, as follows: 1) Climate change biology 
(Hannah 2011) is a field that considers the interaction of biological ecosystems and 
changes in the climate. This discipline studies the impacts of climate change in 
natural systems. The future impacts of climate change, is a broad area that touches 
upon all dimensions of biology. 2) Chemistry of climate change: the greenhouse-
gas effect is present in both land and water ecosystems. The reduction in the 
amount of calcium carbonate in water (saturation state), and the decrease in the 
earlier acidification of the sea, are caused by the dissolving of CO2 in seawater. The 
saturation state has caused creatures to have insufficient calcium carbonate for 
their shells or skeletons because they used to get the calcium carbonate from the 
seawater. On other hand, the Climate Institute (2010) stated that the reduction of 
0.5 pH in seawater caused an expected drop of 60% in the availability of calcium 
carbonate. The calcium carbonate secretion by mussels has been well-studied for 
a long time. The great scientist Charles Darwin was among those who studied 
mussels.  

Species extinction, reduction in abundance, or range shift is observed in the 
presence of more acidic water, especially in diverse mollusc’s sea creatures such as 
mussels and corals. This is because acidic water contains less calcium carbonate. 
The altered pH in the seawater is the direct effect of acidification. According to 
Armitage et al. (2010), in the past century, ocean water has become more acidic (a 
decrease in pH of 8.1 to 8.0) due to the presence of 30% more H+ due to dissolved 
CO2 pollution. This means that the environmental quality of the oceans has 
declined. Phytoplankton captures CO2 and sinks to the bottom of seawater. CO2 is 
necessary for photosynthesis, since it stimulates the growth of plants. 
Consequently, global vegetation can be affected by global warming and dissolved 
CO2, but the complex effects of CO2 on ground and water are not well-understood 
Armitage et al. (2010) and (Girgibo 2021). 

According to Hannah (2011) and Girgibo (2021), in a greenhouse planet, CO2 and 
water vapour exist in their natural state, but combustion produces CO2 in higher 
quantities. The global temperature is disrupted by the production of these 
quantities of CO2. The burning of coal, oil and natural gas has caused an increase 
in CO2 (30%) in the past century. Although this was later facilitated by oil and 
natural gas, it was first primarily caused by burning coal. Princiotta (2011) states 
that as of 2015 in Europe there exists an agreement to stop using coal. This is 
considered a step forward in minimising CO2 in the world. Altered plant growth 
and seawater chemistry are the direct effects of CO2, but the main effect is global 
warming. The ‘greenhouse effect’ is defined as follows (Hannah 2011): Heat is 
‘trapped’ by certain gases. The Sun’s radiation warms the Earth’s surface. Some of 



Acta Wasaensia     27 

this radiation is absorbed and then re-emitted by the gases of the atmosphere, such 
as CO2 and water vapour. Indeed, there is a net redirection of long-wavelength 
radiation from the atmosphere and back to Earth caused by part of the re-emitted 
radiation (IPCC 2007; Hannah 2011). The ‘greenhouse gases’ act like glass in a 
greenhouse, trapping heat from the Sun and warming the lower surface of the 
atmosphere.  

To understand climate change, it is important to understand the climate system. 
According to the definition of the climate system in [Shrestha et al. (2014), IPCC 
(2013) and Girgibo (2021)], the atmosphere is the first component of the climate 
system. CO2 has the effect of capturing and re-radiating the energy directed to 
space by the atmosphere. In the case of long-wavelength light radiation (heat), the 
atmosphere absorbs the heat and releases it to the land surface and ocean. 
Nitrogen (78%) and oxygen (21%) are the main components of the air, while the 
rest is water vapour and CO2. The oceans are the second component of the climate 
system. The importance of oceans is that they contain water and dissolved gases. 
In addition, they reduce the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere because 
oceans absorb CO2. Storms like hurricanes release water vapour from warmer 
oceans (IPCC 2007). The climate is defined as average weather (Shrestha et al. 
2014). The difference between climate and weather is that the climate can possibly 
be predicted 50 years from now, whereas the weather cannot be predicted more 
than a few weeks in advance (IPCC 2007).  

Climate change is caused by CO2 emissions and the results are evident in world 
water resources. During the Industrial Revolution, the use of fossil fuels such as 
coal and oil in industries and automobiles produced a considerable amount of CO2 
emissions. Afterwards, pollution has declined, primarily because